As Donald Trump secured a second U.S. presidential win, Southeast Asian leaders joined a global chorus of congratulations, but they remained watchful of his pledges of tariffs and protectionism.

The question: Were these campaigns bluster, or are they a roadmap for governance?

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed optimism, hoping the enduring "unshakable alliance" between the U.S. and the Philippines would remain "a force for good" across the Pacific.

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim commended Trump on his "remarkable political comeback," while Cambodian Premier Hun Manet voiced confidence in the U.S.'s ongoing role in fostering regional stability and prosperity.

But beyond formalities, Southeast Asia braces for economic upheaval.

Trump’s proposed blanket tariffs of 10%-20% on imports would shake a region heavily dependent on exports to the U.S., potentially threatening GDP and trade balances across these economies.

"Experience with Trump’s first term means Southeast Asia is more prepared this time," says Le Hong Hiep of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

"While some nations may be disappointed, they’re ready to adapt and safeguard their interests."

Experts highlight that a second Trump administration won’t impact all nations uniformly. Bridget Welsh of the University of Nottingham notes that trade concerns dominate for some, while nations like the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam face heightened security risks as they navigate U.S.-China tensions.

Vietnam, Southeast Asia’s biggest exporter to the U.S., is particularly on edge.

Trump’s initial engagement with Hanoi was warm but soured in 2019 as he grew frustrated with trade surpluses. A subsequent crackdown on Vietnamese exports, citing currency manipulation, was only halted by the Biden administration.

With Vietnam's trade surplus now at an all-time high, analysts anticipate renewed scrutiny. Trump’s plan to impose additional tariffs, including a staggering 60% on Chinese goods, could push U.S. firms to further divest from China—a shift that Southeast Asian economies like Vietnam and Malaysia have previously benefited from.

Oxford Economics, an advisory firm, recently estimated that Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to a 3% fall in exports from "non-China Asia," although poorer economies in Southeast Asia could experience steeper declines.

"Southeast Asia will suffer in terms of GDP and trade as a share of GDP if Trump makes good on his tariff obsession," Frederick Kleim, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, told DW.

"But perhaps less so than in other parts of the world, and Southeast Asia could also see some potential upsides."

While Trump has threatened to impose blanket tariffs on imports, the greater danger for Southeast Asian countries is the risk of being flooded by cheap Chinese goods which have been shut out of the American market, say analysts.

While this may be good news for consumers, it means that the region’s own exports will become far less competitive, affecting economic growth and jobs, reported SPH.

Countries in the region looking to develop their economies would need to be very strategic if they want to compete against Chinese goods being sold below cost, said Ms Trinh Nguyen, a Hong Kong-based senior economist with Natixis consultancy,

“The real danger here is for these countries – if they have the ambition to industrialize – they are going to face a wall of Chinese goods that have very limited places to go,” she said.

“China is not going to stop producing these goods. It will continue its industrial policies because it fundamentally believes that the financialization of the economy is not the way to develop and that it will have to be able to develop real goods. So, it will continue to subsidize production,” she added.

Such dynamics could spawn greater trade conflict in the region.

Ms. Priyanka Kishore, founder and principal economist of Asia Decoded consultancy, said Trump’s plans “do not bode well for Southeast Asia overall”.

“While investigations against Chinese dumping are underway in some Asian economies, substantive actions have been limited so far. Such frictions are likely to increase, as Chinese exports to Asean rise amid exorbitant US tariffs. However, a full-blown trade war is unlikely, as Asian leaders recognize the importance of regional integration in an increasingly fragmented global environment,” she told The Straits Times.

“Trump 2.0 will likely adopt a more aggressive stance towards China, with an escalation in tariffs and forceful de-risking rhetoric. This would result in a slowdown in external demand and heightened economic uncertainty among the Asian economies,” she said.

“His periodic threats to reduce US military support in the region also do not help, especially since the geopolitical situation in Asia has worsened since his last term, with rising conflicts in the South China Sea.”

“Turbulence between the US and China is going to be one of the stories to watch, and of course, this could have ripple effects for the wider region and wider regional China-linked supply chains,” Nick Marro, principal economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told Al Jazeera.

Over the past eight years, the US has moved to untangle itself from its close economic relationship with China, with much of Asia caught in the middle of a game of push and pull between the world’s largest and second-largest economies.

Nick Marro, principal economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit said he expects Trump to move quickly on trade once he re-enters the Oval Office.

“The timeline we are looking at is the first 100 days in office. Tariffs are one part of his policy focus that he hasn’t deviated from the time he’s been in office and the time he has been on the campaign trail,” Marro told Al Jazeera.

“Given this is one area of policy consistency suggests that we could see a bit more rapid movement than in other areas.” – with agencies