By Mata Press Service

Coming to Canada, long seen as a beacon of opportunity, is about to become significantly more challenging, beginning this year.

Once celebrated for its welcoming stance on immigration, The Trudeau Liberals have made a dramatic pivot in Canada’s immigration policy, where restrictions and barriers increasingly replace inclusivity and opportunity.

This shift has left millions of aspiring newcomers grappling with uncertainty, especially with the nation’s political leadership in flux.

Following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's announcement that he will be resigning soon, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who is projected to lead the next Government, has articulated a different approach to Canada's immigration policies.

He proposes aligning immigration levels with the country's capacity to provide housing, healthcare, and employment, suggesting that current rates may be unsustainable.

Poilievre emphasizes a "mathematically driven" formula, linking immigration numbers to home-building and job availability, rather than adhering to predetermined targets.

This perspective indicates a potential shift towards reduced immigration levels under his leadership. Additionally, Poilievre has criticized the existing system for its inefficiencies and has called for reforms to ensure that immigration benefits both newcomers and Canadian society.

Immigration Canada estimates suggest a slight population decline of 0.2% over the next two years, followed by a 0.8% rise in 2027. This reduced immigration influx is anticipated to shrink the housing supply gap by 670,000 homes by 2027.

While the long-term impact remains uncertain, these policy adjustments introduce questions about their effectiveness in achieving balanced growth.

Critics argue that the success of these measures depends on precise implementation and adaptability, as missteps could further erode trust in the government’s ability to manage immigration effectively.

Key changes include:

• Permanent resident (PR) targets for 2025 are set at 395,000, down from previous goals of 500,000.
• Further reductions to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.
• A decrease in the non-permanent resident (NPR) population by approximately 445,000 this year and the next, with slight growth projected in 2027.

Permanent Residency in Focus

Over 40% of individuals granted PR status this year are expected to transition from their current Non-PR status within Canada. The majority of new PRs will be economic immigrants, while family reunification and refugee programs will make up smaller proportions.

Notable changes include:

• By 2027, the proportion of PRs who are French-speaking and residing outside Quebec is expected to rise to 10%.
• Quebec plans to admit 80% of its immigrants with French language proficiency, reflecting the province’s unique immigration system.

Stricter Policies for Temporary Workers

Temporary workers make up a significant portion of Canada’s New PR population, but new policies aim to tighten eligibility. Changes include:

• Spouses of international master’s students will qualify for work permits only if the program lasts at least 16 months.
• Work permits for spouses of foreign workers will now be limited to high-skill or high-demand sectors.
• International graduates seeking post-graduate work permits must meet new language requirements and align with fields experiencing labor shortages.

Additionally, reforms to the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) program impose:

• A cap of 10% on low-wage TFW positions per employer in most cases.
• A requirement for new low-wage TFW applications to be in regions with under 6% unemployment.
• A reduction in low-wage TFW job durations from two years to one year.

International Students Face New Restrictions

• Canada’s international student system, experiencing “unsustainable growth,” has led to new caps and rules:
• Study permit approvals are capped at 437,000 for 2025, down from 485,000 in 2024.
• Advanced degree applicants must now submit letters of attestation from provinces or territories.
• Authorized full-time students can work up to 24 hours weekly during the academic term and full-time during breaks.
• On December 17, 2024, IRCC has added a new education category to the existing list of five eligible fields of study. This change addresses Canada’s high demand for teachers and early childhood educators

Refugee and Visitor Policies Undergo Overhauls

Admissions for refugees and protected persons are set to decline:

• 58,350 individuals are expected to gain refugee status this year, with slight reductions in subsequent years.
• Private sponsorships for refugees have been paused until the end of 2025 due to application backlogs.

Visitor visas, previously issued as 10-year, multiple-entry documents by default, will now be evaluated case-by-case, with new restrictions limiting direct work permit applications from within Canada.

Key arguments for Canada's new immigration policies

1) Housing affordability: Reduced immigration is expected to alleviate pressure on Canada's housing market, which has seen soaring prices and limited availability due to rapid population growth.

2) Public service capacity: The caps aim to reduce strain on healthcare, education, and transportation systems, which have struggled to keep pace with the influx of newcomers.

3) Public opinion: A majority of Canadians now believe there is excessive immigration, primarily due to concerns about housing availability and economic factors.

4) Short-term economic stabilization: Limiting immigration could help rebalance the housing market and align population growth with available resources.

Key arguments against the new immigration caps:

1) Labor shortages: Reduced immigration may exacerbate existing worker deficits in critical sectors such as healthcare, technology, and skilled trades.

2) Economic slowdown: Lower immigration levels could lead to reduced consumer spending and entrepreneurship, potentially impacting Canada's GDP growth.

3) Demographic challenges: With an aging population, reduced immigration could worsen the shrinking workforce issue and increase the dependency ratio.

4) Skilled talent attraction: The caps may hinder Canada's long-term ability to attract and integrate skilled workers, potentially affecting its competitiveness in the global market.