By John Woodside,
Local Journalism Initiative Reporter

Canadians have witnessed catastrophic climate change-induced disasters over and over in recent years, but polling suggests it’s having little effect on the public’s understanding of the climate crisis.

In the past four years, a sampling of climate disasters includes the heat dome over British Columbia that killed over 600 people in 2021; Hurricane Fiona battering Atlantic Canada in 2022; the record-breaking wildfires of 2023 that cloaked the country in smoke and forced Yellowknife residents to evacuate, and Jasper burning down last summer.

Hundreds of lives have been lost, billions of dollars’ worth of damage caused, and climate science is clear that as the planet warms, these types of disasters will only become more intense and frequent.

Against that backdrop, only 63 percent of Canadians understand that climate change is real and caused by humans — a drop from 71 percent in 2021, according to a poll published by the Angus Reid Institute.

About one in 10 Canadians believe climate change is a “theory” that has not been proven, while nearly a quarter of Canadians believe climate change is happening but is caused by “natural changes and cycles.”

“I find it especially troubling to see the decline in Canadians’ acceptance of the very strong scientific consensus that climate change is virtually all caused by human activity,” Kathryn Harrison, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia, told Canada’s National Observer.

“Not paying attention to climate change doesn’t make it go away,” she said. “The reality is that unless we take stronger climate action, heat and extreme weather will keep getting worse.”

Two years ago, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that to prevent catastrophic warming, greenhouse gas emissions must be cut approximately in half this decade. If they’re not, the planet will continue to bake and is more likely to hit dangerous tipping points that, when crossed, lock in major, irreversible damage.

Canadian climate policy is considered “insufficient” by the independent Climate Action Tracker. For Canada to play its part in slashing emissions at the pace required to avoid those tipping points, the economy will need to shift away from fossil fuels.

The number of Canadians who understand climate change is primarily driven by human activities, like burning fossil fuels to heat homes, power vehicles, and industrial applications, versus those that don’t, mirrors the divide Environment and Climate Change Canada found when setting its 2035 emissions reduction target.

About two-thirds of Canadians who gave the federal government feedback when designing its target said they support stronger measures to address climate change, while one-third said they were strongly opposed, according to the department’s analysis. Experts say the public divide could make setting ambitious emission reduction policies more difficult.

Supporters of all parties are less likely to consider climate change a “very serious threat” today than they were in 2021, according to Angus Reid. But, the only major party where a majority of supporters (57 per cent) see climate change as not a threat, or only a minor threat, is the Conservative Party.

The findings come as the federal Liberals’ signature policy, carbon pricing, has all but unravelled. Liberal leadership hopefuls Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland have both pledged to scrap the consumer-facing portion of the carbon price.

As a leading figure in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, Freeland has previously defended the carbon price, but in her bid to become leader, she has said it’s incumbent on leaders to listen to people, and it is clear the tax has little public support. She has not indicated what she would replace the consumer carbon price with, but has said she will work with provinces, territories, Indigenous Peoples, experts and others to “find a solution that works for our federation.”

Carney has been a longtime advocate of carbon pricing, but like Freeland, his campaign has said the consumer-facing carbon tax “isn’t working and has become too divisive.” The alternative he has put forward involves strengthening carbon pricing for industry and to “have big polluters pay consumers to lower their carbon footprint.”

Angus Reid’s polling indicates a significant divide over carbon pricing, with 45 per cent of Canadians wanting it abolished, while 57 per cent want it to stay in some form (specifically, 27 per cent want it maintained at the current price; 15 per cent want a lower carbon price; and 15 per cent want the carbon price to continue escalating as planned.)

A partisan divide is behind the split in public opinion. Liberal, NDP and Bloc supporters range from 66 per cent to 70 per cent in support of carbon pricing, compared to just eight per cent of Conservatives.

“On the consumer carbon tax, I’d say that misinformation has won  for a lot of Canadians, who are opposing a policy that both works to reduce carbon pollution and in most cases puts money in their pockets,” Harrison said.

John Woodside / Local Journalism Initiative / Canada’s National Observer

Climate Change Survey Highlights

• Decline in Climate Change Urgency: Canadians' sense of urgency regarding climate change has decreased since 2019. Fewer Canadians view climate change as a "very serious" threat (42% compared to 50% in 2021).

• Shifting Beliefs: The belief that climate change is human-caused has dropped from 71% in 2021 to 63%.

• Political Divide: While concern has decreased across the political spectrum, Conservative voters are the most likely to view climate change as a "minor" or "not a" threat.

• Carbon Tax in Question: The federal carbon tax is likely to be axed, with both leading Liberal leadership candidates considering abandoning the consumer side of the policy.

• Views on Carbon Tax: 45% of Canadians want the carbon tax abolished, while the rest prefer to keep it at a lower rate (15%), maintain it at the current level (27%), or increase it as planned (15%).

• Energy Policy Priorities: There's a growing preference for energy policies focused on economic growth rather than reducing carbon emissions.

• Liberal Leadership Impact: One-in-five (19%) of those who would support the Liberals in the scenario that Carney wins the leadership race say the carbon tax should be abolished. One-in-six (15%) who would support the Liberals if Freeland won say the same.