By Victor Ing,
Special to The Post

Since last year, in 2024, permanent resident hopefuls have been bombarded with bad news that immigration targets and programs alike are being reduced or cut and are wondering how this will affect their chances at qualifying for permanent residence. It’s now mid-May, and this year’s Express Entry statistics show that things are not business as usual with the Department of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). Let’s take a quick glance at the Express Entry statistics available so far this year and compare them to the same period in 2024 to see what’s changed in terms of the number and types of invitations to apply (ITA) that have been issued.

A few statistics immediately stand out when reviewing these ITA numbers. Importantly, the overall number of ITAs has not markedly changed, even though overall immigration targets have been reduced for 2025. However, the types of ITAs have noticeably shifted. Unsurprisingly, the number of French proficiency ITAs has increased while the number of occupation-based ITAs has decreased dramatically, along with a noticeable decrease in skilled worker invitations. On the other hand, this time last year, there were exactly zero ITAs issued to Provincial Nominees who were enrolled in the Express Entry system. These numbers show that our government is prioritizing a few specific types of candidates.

Francophone Focus

Firstly, French-speaking candidates are doing very well this year in Express Entry. This is consistent with IRCC’s February 27, 2025, news release and with the Department’s 2024 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration issued in October 202,4 expressing that they intend to increase Francophone immigration targets for the year.

In-Canada Focus

Secondly, the government is prioritizing skilled workers with Canadian work experience (ie, Canadian Experience Class members) and excluding skilled workers who have not worked in Canada from receiving ITAs (ie, Federal Skilled Workers). The increase in ITAs to Provincial Nominees in the first part of this year also shows a priority towards keeping skilled workers already living and working in Canada, since most Provincial Nominees are already resident here.

Healthcare, Trades and Education Focus

In its February 27, 2025, news release, IRCC also announced its intention to focus on inviting health care and social services workers, trades workers, and educators to apply for permanent residence. Presumably, this will occur at the expense of other types of workers they have prioritized in past years, including agricultural and STEM workers, who have yet to receive any ITAs so far this year. The first occupation-based ITAs were issued only weeks ago on May 1 and May 2, when 500 educators (a recently created category) and 1,000 health care and social services workers, respectively, were invited to apply for permanent residence.

We can draw several conclusions from these general trends: With a clear in-Canada focus, permanent resident hopefuls who have not spent any time living and working in Canada will have a very difficult time qualifying for permanent residence. It is not an exaggeration to say that most candidates who are outside Canada will have to first relocate to Canada and possibly even look outside the Express Entry system to find alternative immigration pathways to have a chance at qualifying for permanent residence.

Furthermore, if IRCC continues to focus their ITAs this year on inviting health care and social services workers, trades workers, and educators to apply for permanent residence, then this will make it more difficult for all other (general) skilled workers candidates who do not work in these prioritized fields to receive an ITA. They may need to acquire more points and/or wait longer in the Express Entry pool before they get their turn to receive an ITA.

As we approach the midway point of the year, permanent resident hopefuls should keep a close eye on the number of Express Entry System ITAs that have been issued and the point scores required to receive them. Though some trends have already started to emerge, there are still some major questions that have not been addressed. Among them is the question of what will happen to the points scores required to receive an ITA in the wake of the government’s decision to end the granting of bonus points for permanent resident candidates with job offers effective March 25, 2025.

On May 13, 2025, IRCC issued its first Canadian Experience Class ITAs since the March 25, 2025, change took effect. Interestingly, only 500 invitations were issued to candidates with 547 points or more. This is a staggeringly high points threshold, so we still do not yet have a clear picture of what the long-term effects of the loss of bonus points for having a job offer will be. The low number of ITAs issued suggests that IRCC is still taking a wait-and-see approach to calibrate its ITA strategy going forward. Even without the bonus 50 points for having a job offer, there are currently more than 22,000 candidates who are enrolled in the Express Entry system that have a score of between 501-600 points. In other words, IRCC already has a huge pool of candidates to choose from for the rest of the year, which paints a fairly grim picture for permanent resident hopefuls who do not have strong or any French proficiency and who do not work in the prioritized fields of health care and social services, trades, and education.

I would recommend that anybody interested in qualifying for permanent residence in the next few years carefully monitor these trends and proactively consider applying for permanent residence under alternative pathways that are emerging, including Canada’s pilot programs targeting specific workers, such as caregivers or those encouraging immigration to smaller communities in Canada.

Victor Ing is a lawyer at Sas & Ing Immigration Law Centre. He provides a full range of immigration services.

For more information, go to canadian-visa-lawyer.com or email victor@sasanding.com.