By Mata Press Service

Canada’s immigration system is undergoing a seismic shift, as Ottawa’s new mandate to “rebalance” immigration intake has led to a marked decline in permanent residents, a drop in international students, and a shrinking pool of temporary skilled workers.

A fresh report from the Metropolis Institute and the Association for Canadian Studies paints a sobering picture: the number of new permanent residents fell by 15% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

The most dramatic reductions came from refugee admissions, which dropped 37% year-over-year.

This sharp pullback aligns with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s pledge to scale immigration to “sustainable levels”—a term the federal government has intentionally left undefined. Announced last fall, Ottawa’s new targets aim to bring permanent resident admissions down to 395,000 in 2025, further declining to 365,000 by 2027. The shift is a response to mounting concerns over housing shortages, health care pressures, and infrastructure strain.

Despite cuts to permanent admissions, the number of temporary foreign workers inched upward—from 42,730 in Q1 2024 to 44,675 in Q1 2025. This modest rise was mostly concentrated in Atlantic Canada, while provinces like Alberta and Quebec saw slight dips. In contrast, two other major temporary streams saw declines: study permits fell by 20%, and the International Mobility Program (IMP) plunged by 23.5%.

The immigration reductions have already begun to affect Canada's population growth. According to Statistics Canada, the country’s population increased by just 0.2% in Q4 2024—the slowest growth rate since the early pandemic in 2020. Between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the national population grew by just 63,382, down significantly from the 176,699 gain in the previous quarter.

Eastern Canada bore the brunt of the decline in permanent residents. Prince Edward Island saw a staggering 39% drop. Nova Scotia’s intake fell by 29%, and Quebec—historically a major immigrant destination—saw its share of Canada’s total permanent resident intake fall below 10% for the first time in the modern era.

By contrast, Newfoundland and Labrador emerged as an anomaly. The province reported a 12% increase in permanent residents, driven by a 36% surge in economic-class immigrants.

Ontario remained the top destination for newcomers, maintaining its long-standing position by receiving 45% of new permanent residents in Q1 2025. However, even the province saw a dip of 11% compared to the year prior.

The most disproportionate decline came in Canada’s refugee stream. Refugee admissions made up 15% of permanent residents in early 2024 but dropped to just 11% this year. Ontario saw a 40% cut, Quebec nearly 58%, and Newfoundland and Labrador faced the steepest drop at 72%.

The profile of refugee-origin countries has also changed. Admissions from Afghanistan, Syria, and Iran fell dramatically, while Canada granted more permanent status to individuals from Ukraine, Colombia, and Somalia. This realignment underscores a geopolitical shift in Canada’s humanitarian focus, experts say.

Asylum claims also plummeted—down 75% at Canadian airports alone—likely due to tighter enforcement and fewer international arrivals. Significant declines were noted in claims from Mexico, Bangladesh, India, and Nigeria. Only Haiti and Iran saw an increase in asylum applications.

The study permit stream—once a fast-growing channel—has taken a significant hit. Applications and approvals fell by one-fifth in Q1 2025, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. The largest decreases came from India, Brazil, Hong Kong, and Ghana—countries that previously sent tens of thousands of students to Canadian universities and colleges.

The International Mobility Program, which facilitates temporary work for high-skilled professionals and intra-company transferees, was hit even harder. Its 23.5% decline is largely attributed to falling numbers of Ukrainian permit holders and cuts in major receiving provinces like Ontario, Newfoundland, and PEI.

The impact has been felt across several key occupations. Notably, the number of home care workers and software engineers entering the country dropped significantly between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, raising concerns about gaps in the health care and tech sectors.

The revised plan reserves 62% of future permanent resident spots for economic migrants, 22% for family reunification, and 15% for humanitarian and refugee commitments—on paper.

But the new numbers show a deeper reorientation away from humanitarian migration and broad-based international recruitment. Experts caution that while more “targeted” migration may address local job needs, the long-term costs could include talent shortages, decreased university revenues, and reputational damage to Canada’s global image as an open society.

Business leaders, especially in construction, elder care, and agriculture, have already begun voicing concerns. Universities, too, warn that fewer international students will erode funding models and research capabilities.

For now, Ottawa is standing firm. In Carney’s words, “Canada remains a welcoming country—but that welcome must be managed responsibly, sustainably, and with our housing, healthcare, and infrastructure realities in mind.”

Key Highlights – Immigration Trends to Q1 2025

• Permanent Residents: Down 15% nationally in Q1 2025; Quebec’s share dropped below 10% for the first time.

• Refugees: Admissions dropped 37%; biggest declines in Quebec (-58%), Ontario (-40%), and Newfoundland (-72%).

• Economic Migrants: Fell 13% overall; Newfoundland saw a 36% increase.

• Temporary Foreign Workers: Slight increase to 44,675, up from 42,730 in Q1 2024.

• Study Permits: Down 20%, with sharpest declines from India, Brazil, Hong Kong, and Ghana.

• International Mobility Program: Declined 23.5%, with the biggest losses in Ontario, PEI, and Newfoundland.

• Asylum Claims: Fell 38% nationally; airport claims dropped 75%.

• Population Growth: Slowed to just 0.2% in Q4 2024—the lowest rate since the pandemic.

• Top Rising Origin Countries: Colombia, Ukraine, Somalia.

• Top Falling Origin Countries: Afghanistan, Syria, Iran.