By Mata Press Service

Canada is grappling with a growing challenge that threatens its future prosperity as more newcomers choose to leave while birth rates decline and immigration levels begin to shrink.

A groundbreaking study by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC), supported by the University of Toronto, reveals that two simple but powerful factors — optimism about the future and a sense of belonging — are the most significant drivers in persuading newcomers to stay.

The ICC’s report,  Here to Stay: Understanding Immigrant Retention in Canada, is based on a survey of nearly 5,000 verified immigrants enrolled in the ICC’s Canoo program, the country’s largest newcomer integration service.

It challenges conventional assumptions by showing that while housing affordability and the high cost of living remain serious concerns, the deeper forces shaping whether immigrants stay are emotional and social, not purely economic.

Immigrant departures, known as “onward migration”, have been rising steadily since the 1980s, with the trend intensifying in recent years as housing costs soar and inflation eats into household budgets. For Canada, the stakes are high. With a declining birth rate, immigration is no longer simply an economic strategy; it is essential to sustaining population growth and the country’s long-term vitality. Each departure represents a loss of skills, knowledge, and potential tax revenue, as well as a blow to the cultural and economic vibrancy of communities across the nation.

The ICC’s findings show that to understand and reverse this trend, policymakers need to look beyond the surface. Optimism about the future emerged as the single most powerful factor influencing an immigrant’s decision to remain.

The study found that a one-point increase in optimism boosts the likelihood of staying by an astounding 28 percent. Close behind is a sense of identity and belonging, which raises the likelihood of staying by 25 percent. Other factors — safety and stability, trust in Canadian institutions, and economic optimism — were also found to be important, but their impact was comparatively smaller.

“We know immigrants are leaving Canada, but until today, policymakers had very little evidence to guide investments in retention,” said Daniel Bernhard, CEO of the ICC. “Talented immigrants cannot build Canada’s economy if they leave. Now we know more about how to persuade them to stay. Services that give credible hope of a better tomorrow and those that help immigrants feel a strong sense of Canadian identity are proven to drive retention — especially amongst the highest-skilled immigrants that government has worked so hard to attract, but who are currently most likely to leave.”

The study also looked at why immigrants come to Canada in the first place. Standard of living was cited by 66 percent of respondents, followed by job opportunities at 38 percent and safety and security at 35 percent. However, when asked what motivates them to stay, the answers shifted toward intangible, human-centred factors such as quality of life, safety, family and community, and opportunities for their children. This suggests that while economic incentives draw newcomers to Canada, emotional and social connections determine whether they remain.

Housing affordability continues to loom large in these conversations. The majority of survey participants disagreed with the statement that “Canada is a place with affordable housing.” Among those expressing a willingness to leave, housing affordability (16 percent) and inflation or general economic concerns (15 percent) were the top reasons cited. These macro-level “push factors” are complex and difficult to solve quickly, the report notes, but they cannot be ignored if Canada hopes to reverse the rising tide of immigrant departures.

The ICC’s research offers clear guidance for governments and community organizations on where to focus their efforts. Programs that foster optimism and belonging are crucial. These include initiatives that support newcomer skills development and integration into the labour market, activities that connect immigrant families with other Canadians to build inclusion and a shared sense of purpose, and opportunities for newcomers to engage in social, cultural, and civic experiences that strengthen their bonds with Canadian society.

“The bottom line is clear,” Bernhard emphasized. “To retain immigrants, we must invest in belonging, future optimism, and connection to Canada. This ensures they choose to build their futures with us.”

The report arrives at a pivotal moment for Canada. With immigration serving as the backbone of the country’s population growth and economic strategy, rising departures threaten to create a “leaky bucket” scenario where gains from immigration are lost almost as quickly as they are made. For many Asian immigrants, who make up a significant portion of Canada’s skilled newcomers, these findings are particularly resonant. They came to Canada seeking opportunity, stability, and a better future for their families, yet without a strong sense of belonging and optimism, even the most talented individuals may consider leaving, taking their skills and ambitions with them.

As Bernhard cautioned, Canada’s future depends on making retention a priority, not an afterthought. “We cannot afford to take immigrant retention for granted,” he said. “If we fail to create a Canada where people feel hopeful and included, we risk losing the very talent that will shape our shared future.”

Key Highlights from ICC Report

Top Factors Driving Immigrant Retention

· A one-point increase in optimism about the future raises the likelihood of staying by  28%.

· A one-point increase in sense of belonging raises the likelihood of staying by  25%.

· Safety and stability boost retention by  16%.

· Trust in Canadian institutions increases retention by  14%.

Why Immigrants Come to Canada

· Standard of living: 66%

· Job opportunities: 38%

· Safety and security: 35%

Top Reasons for Leaving

· Housing affordability: 16%

· Inflation and economic concerns: 15%

Policy Recommendations

· Support newcomers with career development and job market integration.

· Build community connections and inclusion through cultural and civic programs.

· Foster optimism and a sense of Canadian identity to retain top global talent.