By Lucy-Claire Saunders

The threat of global terrorism is reportedly declining, despite years of foreboding analysis by think tanks and experts. Simon Fraser University researchers told the United Nations in New York last week that terrorism fatalities were down by some 40 per cent in late 2006 compared to 2001, and according to preliminary data, dropped even further in mid-2007.

"The bleak assessments made in the past on the terrorist threat and its direction do not create a balanced picture," Prof. Andrew Mack, author of The Human Security Brief 2007, told the Asian Pacific Post.

The report — funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden and Britain — tracks a "remarkable but largely unnoticed decline in the incidents of terrorism around the world, including a sharp decrease in deadly assaults perpetrated by al-Qaeda’s loosely knit Islamasist global terror network."

There is currently no agreed upon global definition of ‘terrorism,’ making it extremely difficult to quantify the threat, said Mack, Director of the Human Security Report Project and a Professor at the SFU School for International Studies.

Conclusions drawn from U.S. databases typically present a skewed picture of the global terrorist threat, he added.

The U.S. defines a terror group as a body that "threatens the security of U.S. nationals, or the national security of the United States," — a U.S.-centric definition that counts civilian deaths in Iraq as those caused by terrorism, not as a result of civil war.

Mack argues if the U.S. counts Iraqi civilian casualties as terrorist related, it must do the same for civilian deaths in civil wars throughout Africa.

But the SFU group found that no matter how terrorism is defined, even if by American-centric measures, the world is experiencing a 40 per cent decline in the global civilian death toll.

"If the civilian deaths in Iraq are not counted as caused by terrorist activities, the decline begins in 2001," said Mack. "If the unusual practice of counting the international killing of civilians in civil war is (defined as) terrorism, then there is still a substantial decline beginning in 2007."

While the reasons for this decline in global violence are still a matter of speculation, The Human Security Brief gives three reasons, all underlined by an increasing lack of Muslim support for Islamic terrorism.

First, extremist ideology is only embraced by a slim and declining minority of Muslims.

Second, the majority of Muslims don’t condone the harsh, repressive methods required to enforce extremism.

And third, Muslims are increasingly disturbed by the fact that indiscriminate violence is being directed toward other Muslims.

"The Bush administration has certainly made the argument that civilian casualties have fallen a lot in Iraq, which is proof their strategy is working," said Mack. "But we think it has more to do with the extremely stupid policies of al-Qaeda. They have become, in a sense, their own worse enemy."

While fatalities may be declining, the very real threat of terrorism still exists.

As the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing approach, for instance, China says it is dealing with increased threats from various groups.

"There are threats towards China from terrorists," Consul General Yang Qiang told the Asian Pacific Post. "For example, there are pro-Tibetan and Falun Gong groups which are preparing to sabotage our Olympics."

Islamic terrorists are also a concern, according to Chinese officials, who say there are plans afoot by a number of unrelated groups to attack Chinese cities "with poisonous gas and explosives" while the world’s Olympic gaze is focused on China.

But even after the medals have long been handed out, Consul General Qiang expects the terrorist threat will be a top concern for years to come.

"As the development of China continues and we as a nation become stronger, the threat from terrorists will not stop," he said. "But we are confident that we will be able to keep all emergencies under control."

In India, both the public and the government have been battling extremist forces for decades.

Investigators appear to be floundering as these terrorists continue to strike at will. Nearly 500 people have been killed in nine well-coordinated terrorist attacks across India since the Diwali eve bombing in 2005, but not one of the cases has been resolved and no terrorists have been arrested.

While India struggles to keep terrorists at bay, Indonesia experienced its second consecutive year without a major terrorist incident.

The Indonesian National Police scored major successes in breaking up terrorist cells linked to Jemaah Islamiya and other violent Islamic extremist organizations, according to the U.S. State Department.

"After the second Bali bombing in October 2005, there has been no significant terrorist threat in Indonesia," said Consul Singgh Yuwono, speaking on behalf of Consul General Bunyan Saptomo. "It is because Indonesia has determined to fight terrorism. Moreover, Indonesia is among the few countries in the world which have been able to deal with terrorist groups through legal processes.

"Most of those who involved in terrorist acts in Indonesia have been brought to the courts.

The three Bali bombers have been sentenced to death and more member of terrorist network received more than 10 years sentences in jail.

In short, the threat of terrorism in Indonesia is declining and Indonesia is becoming much safer now."