Rising temperatures and humidity due to climate change are likely to increase the number of days with unsafe “heat stress”, putting south-east Asia at great risk of significant drops in productivity, a research firm said.
South-east Asia over the next three decades could lose 16% of its labour capacity due to rising heat stress, which could cause absenteeism due to dizziness, fatigue, nausea and even death in extreme cases, the British firm Verisk Maplecroft said.
The company predicted the biggest losses in productivity in Singapore and Malaysia, with 25% and 24% decreases from current levels. Indonesia could see a 21% drop, Cambodia and the Philippines 16% and Thailand and Vietnam 12%, The Guardian reported.
“Climate change will push heat stress impacts to boiling point, with significant implications for both national economies and the health of vulnerable workers,” said James Allan, head of environment at Verisk Maplecroft, in a statement.
The company used climate projections to calculate the drop in labour capacity, based on the occurrence of conditions that prompt heat stress and leave workers unable to perform physical activity.
It said by 2045 the number of heat stress days in Singapore and Malaysia will rise to 364 (from 335 and 338 respectively); to 355 from 303 in Indonesia; and to 337 from 276 in the Philippines.
Calculating potential lost productivity for 1,300 cities, the company found 45 of the 50 highest risk cities was in south-east Asia, including Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Jakarta.
Twenty of the 50 highest risk cities are in Malaysia, 13 in Indonesia, four in the Philippines and three are in Thailand.
High-risk cities outside the region included Cartagena, at the top of the list, and Barranquilla in Colombia, Panama City and Arraijan in Panama, and Manaus in Brazil.
Meanwhile, data from the Pew Research Center, which was collected in 40 major countries, shows majorities in all of them citing climate change as a very serious problem to be dealt with.
Asia is of particular interest here since several Asian states are major emitters of greenhouse gas. China and India, in particular, come in at first and third place respectively in terms of total emissions, the Diploat reported.
The release comes before global leaders convene at the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) United Nations climate talks in Paris later this month.
The Asia-Pacific region, while worried about climate change overall, is less worried than other parts of the world, The Diplomat said.
The percentage of Asia-Pacific respondents that agreed with the statements that “Climate change is a very serious problem,” that “Climate change is harming people now,” and are “Very concerned that climate change will harm me personally” is lower than the global median. 45 percent of Asia-Pacific respondents agreed with the first statement, 48 percent with the second, and 37 percent with the third. The only other region where fewer than half of all respondents expressed similar beliefs was the Middle East.
At a more granular level, opinions on climate change vary across Asia.
In Asia, India, the Philippines, and Vietnam are among the most concerned about the effects of climate change with 76 percent, 72 percent, and 69 percent of respondents respectively stating they agree that “Global climate change is a very serious problem.”
Pew found in a separate study of Indian attitudes toward the foreign policy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government that Indians see climate change as their top international concern, outranking cyberattacks, economic instability, ISIS, and territorial disputes with China. That same study showed that 74 percent of Indians see air pollution as a major problem.
The latest Pew climate data shows that China is an outlier in terms of attitudes toward climate change in Asia. Just 18 percent of Chinese respondents cited climate change as a very serious problem. This number is low, but somewhat out of sync with a recent survey conducted by Chinese state media agency Xinhua. The Xinhua survey, which focused on Chinese expectations for the 13th five-year plan, saw environmental protection issues at the top of what Chinese citizens were concerned about. In that survey, 73.8 percent of respondents noted that the environment was their top concern.
Though environmental protection is substantively different from climate change, the Xinhua survey also asked respondents to cite what they’d like to see as a policy focus within environmental protection. Here, respondents were clearer: 76.4 percent wanted more investigation of polluted companies, 72.3 percent wanted improved air quality, and 58.6 percent wanted a low-carbon lifestyle. Interestingly, the new Pew data shows that China experienced a statistically significant dip of 23 percentage points since 2010 in the number of Chinese who saw climate change as a very serious problem. In 2010, 41 percent of Chinese respondents cited the issue as a very serious problem.
The new Pew survey also finds that most major Asian states see drought as the top most concerning negative consequence of global climate change. Respondents in India (53 percent), Philippines (51 percent), South Korea (47 percent), Australia (45 percent), Vietnam (44 percent), and China (38 percent) all cited drought as their top concern. Malaysia (36 percent), Japan (45 percent), and Pakistan (34 percent) cited severe weather as their top concern (Malaysians are equally concerned about extreme heat).
All Asian states surveyed in the new Pew dataset have majorities supporting government action on limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Even in Pakistan, the one outlier among the 40 states surveyed, support stands at 48 percent. Notably, though Indians are the most concerned about climate overall, at 70 percent, Indian support for government action on limiting emissions is the third-lowest among the Asian states surveyed. South Korea and Japan, the two most developed Asian states in the sample, voice full-throated support for emissions limits with 89 percent and 83 percent in support respectively.
Heading into the Paris talks, Asian leaders can head in knowing that even if they have to agree to emissions caps that will ultimately suppress their rate of growth or development, they will generally have the backing of public opinion back home. With 60 percent of the world’s population, how Asians see climate change will matter deeply for global policy-making, The Diplomat said.