As the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines herald the end of the pandemic, international air travel could come booming back next year but with a new rule: Travellers to certain countries must be vaccinated against the coronavirus before they can fly.

Airlines and nations hope they may soon be able to revive suspended flight routes and dust off lucrative tourism plans, say many reports but countries in Asia and the Pacific, in particular, are determined not to let their hard-won gains against the virus evaporate.

Tony Fernandes, the CEO of Malaysian budget carrier AirAsia, which is one of the world’s leading low-cost airlines, said it’s only a matter of time until many regional governments will require any international traveller to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

He told reporters, “I foresee in Asia anyway; I think they won’t let anyone in without a vaccination.”

Reuters reports aviation industry opposition to mandatory vaccines has “intensified” as government approvals of vaccines have been increasing.

The head of Australia’s largest airline says his company will likely require passengers to be vaccinated before they get on an airplane.

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce started talking about the issue last month — adding that airlines have been looking at potential methods of electronic verification of vaccinations.

South Korea’s largest airline has a similar message.

Jill Chung, a spokesperson for Korean Air, said on Tuesday there is a real possibility that airlines will require that passengers be vaccinated. She said that is because governments are likely to require vaccinations as a condition for lifting quarantine requirements for new arrivals.

Air New Zealand had a similar response, but it will still be some time before any specific policies are adopted.

At this point, most countries in the Asia Pacific are simply not accepting tourists, especially not from destinations with large outbreaks of the coronavirus — such as the United States.

While regulatory processes are underway, few Asian countries expect to receive significant amounts of the vaccines initially.

Here are estimated distribution timelines, supply deals announced and clinical trials being held in the region;

China

China has not announced supply deals with Western drugmakers, which instead have partnered with private companies in the country. AstraZeneca's vaccine may be approved in China by mid-2021 and its Chinese partner Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co Ltd plans annual production capacity of at least 100 million doses by the end of this year. For the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, a unit of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd plans a Phase II trial. Tibet Rhodiola Pharmaceutical Holding Co is bringing in Russian vaccine candidate Sputnik V and plans early and mid-stage trials in China. China has also approved three vaccine candidates developed by Sinovac Biotech Ltd and state-owned China National Pharmaceutical Group (Sinopharm) for emergency use, and Sinopharm hopes its two candidates will get conditional approval for general use this year.

Japan

Japan has deals to buy 120 million doses from Pfizer/BioNTech in the first half of next year and 120 million from AstraZeneca - the first 30 million of which will be shipped by March 2021 - and 250 million from Novavax. It is also in talks with Johnson & Johnson and has a deal with Shionogi & Co Ltd. Experts said vaccine makers would need to conduct at least Phase I and II trials in Japan before seeking approval for use.

South Korea

The country has deals to buy 20 million doses each from AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Moderna and another 4 million doses from Johnson & Johnson's Janssen, enough to cover up to 34 million people. It will procure additional doses for 10 million people through COVAX. Inoculation is likely to start in the second quarter of next year to allow time to observe possible side effects.

India

The head of the Serum Institute of India, which makes the AstraZeneca vaccine, said on Nov. 23 the positive late-state trial result of the candidate will allow it to seek emergency use approval by year-end, before securing approval for full introduction by February or March. India also expects a government-backed vaccine to be launched as early as February. It is also conducting a late-stage trial of Sputnik V.

Taiwan

Taiwan aims to secure around 15 million doses initially, both via the COVAX scheme and by direct purchases from manufacturers, and may buy an additional 15 million doses. The government has said it hopes to begin vaccinations in the first quarter next year.

Malaysia

The Southeast Asian nation has agreed to buy 12.8 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, becoming the first country in the region to announce a deal with the U.S. drug maker after some expressed reservations over the need for the ultra-cold storage that the vaccine requires. Pfizer will deliver the first batch of 1 million doses in the first quarter of next year.

The Philippines

The archipelago announced a deal on Nov. 27 for 2.6 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine and is discussing a possible 1 million more, covering about 1% of a population of 108 million people. It is also seeking 20 million to 50 million doses from Sinovac and is in talks with others, including Pfizer. Vaccine makers can seek approval from Philippine regulators even if no clinical trial is conducted in the country.

Indonesia

Southeast Asia's most populous country has secured 125.5 million doses from Sinovac, 30 million from Novavax, is in talks with AstraZeneca and Pfizer to buy 50 million doses each, and expects to get 16 million from COVAX. Indonesia is testing Sinovac's vaccine and preparing mass vaccination for medical staff and other frontline workers to start as soon as late January.

Vietnam

A government official said COVAX vaccines would cover only 20% of the population and the country is likely to have a chance to secure separate deals soon, as demand is very high.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh signed a deal with India's Serum Institute to buy 30 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. It also expects to receive 68 million doses from global vaccine alliance GAVI at a subsidized rate, a senior health ministry official said.

– Agencies