By New Canadian Media

A “Refugee Claims Analysis Report” by the Canadian Border Services Agency (CBSA) obtained by Vancouver lawyer Richard Kurland highlights the push and pull factors from 10 top source countries of refugees;

INDIA

PUSH FACTORS: “High unemployment rate; insurgency; environmental degradation (i.e. dangerous levels of air pollution); extensive poverty; caste discrimination; corruption; increasing religious tensions (i.e. attacks on religious minorities); gender-based violence against women and girls; honour killings; discrimination against LGBTQ+ community.

PULL FACTORS: “Strong Indian diaspora in Canada; favourable socio-economic opportunities; family reunification; freedom for LGBTQ+ individuals; respect for women's rights.”

X-FACTOR: “Political and religious persecution and socio-economic conditions, particularly of minorities, will likely influence migratory tends from India in 2021. India has been at the forefront of vaccine efforts and attempting to manage the COVID-19 virus spread among its population, likely pushing previous agendas aside. However, much like in the rest of the world, 2021 will likely reveal the effects of restrictions, spending, and domestic lockdown policies that have negatively impacted much of India's economy through further loss of employment, loss of revenue and a straining health care system. As a result, once travel restrictions begin to lift, more Indian nationals are expected to look for employment opportunities in wealthier countries such as Canada and will likely use the resources of sophisticated smuggling networks to do so.”

MEXICO

PUSH FACTORS: “Criminal violence; record-high homicide rate; discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity; violence against women; natural disasters (i.e. earthquakes); corruption; violence against journalists; income inequality.

PULL FACTORS: “Visa-free travel; favourable socio-economic opportunities; diaspora community; little criminal or political violence; freedom for LGBTQ+ individuals; little perceived corruption.”

X-FACTOR: “As of December 2020, the country surpassed 100,000 COVID deaths however the number is likely higher, the already fragile Mexican economy has experienced significant loss as a result of the pandemic by way of business and investment decreases, with little government financial relief response to assist businesses to remain open and maintain employment levels. The pandemic has also caused further increases in critical issues and push factors in the country such as violence against women. The COVID-19 pandemic is benefitting organized crime groups in Mexico, as they step in to fulfill the needs of the local population through the delivery of food and medication where local government efforts are insufficient. As a result, the pandemic is indirectly encouraging increased membership in organized crime, as Mexico's economy continues shrinking and access to legitimate work is increasingly limited.”

IRAN

PUSH FACTORS: “Repression of political dissent; religious fundamentalism; repression and discrimination of religious and ethnic minorities; civil tensions; discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity; economic crises; academic restrictions; allegations of unfair trials and cruel punishments (i.e. torture).

PULL FACTORS: “Favorable socio-economic conditions; large diaspora; academic opportunities; religious freedoms; freedom for LGBTQ+ individuals.”

X-FACTOR: “Iran continues to struggle with containing the COVID-19 pandemic with record deaths and health care systems weakened by insufficient funding, staff and equipment. …The U.S. government continues a sanction heavy strategy to try and quell Iran from continuing war in the Middle East that has reportedly created a humanitarian disaster.”

COLUMBIA

PUSH FACTORS: “Violence due to drug trafficking; paramilitary activities; corruption; discrimination against LGBTQ+ community; violence against human rights activists and community leaders; internal and regional displacement (i.e. as a result of conflict or land degradation); limited economic opportunities.

PULL FACTORS: “Favourable socio-economic opportunities; family reunification; Colombian diaspora; little criminal paramilitary or political violence; little perceived corruption; freedom for LGBTQ+ community.”

X-FACTOR: “Recently, Colombia announced a major policy reform providing a ten-year temporary protection status to the approximately 1.7 million Venezuelans in the country. It is likely that this was done in order to limit the effects of regional displacement and bolster domestic security policies. It remains unclear if a majority of Colombians support the move and what it will mean for Colombian migration to Canada into 2021-2022.”

HAITI

PUSH FACTORS: “Economic and political instability; political unrest; corruption; long-standing human rights issues; high crime rates; high unemployment; extreme poverty; income inequality; gender-based violence; discrimination against LGBTQ+ individuals; push factors out of secondary countries such as the U.S., Brazil, Venezuela, Bahamas and the Dominican Republic.

PULL FACTORS: “Growing Haitian diaspora in Canada; perceived durable solution for residence; favourable socio-economic and scholastic opportunities; little criminal violence, little to no paramilitary and political violence or corruption; freedom for LGBTQ+ individuals; the perception that migrants are welcomed and diversity embraced.”

X-FACTOR: “Criminal violence is likely to continue to be a strong push factor for irregular migration to Canada from Haiti. The United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) reported 944 intentional homicides, 124 abductions, and 78 cases of sexual and gender-based violence from January through August 31, 2020, with at least 159 people killed as a result of gang violence.”

PAKISTAN

PUSH FACTORS: “Militancy; violent extremism; deteriorating security situation; corruption; weak infrastructure; varied economic growth; religious fundamentalism; violence against women and children (i.e. honour killings, sexual abuse); strict anti-blasphemy law (i.e. viewed as a capital crime); discrimination against LGBTQ+ community: a growing movement of hate speech; effects of Saudization.

PULL FACTORS: “Pakistani community in Canada; favourable socio-economic conditions; freedom for LGBTQ+ individuals: little criminal violence; little to no paramilitary and political violence; little perceived corruption; freedom of religion.”

X-FACTOR: “Bombings and other terrorist attacks still pose a substantial threat to civilians, religious institutions, markets, embassies/diplomatic missions, and other places frequented by civilians despite operations by security forces that have decreased the pace and scope of such attacks in the past several years. Government, military and police officials are the primary targets for most militant groups, though Christians, minority groups and others have been targeted frequently.”

CHINA

PUSH FACTORS: “Communist regime; religious repression; corruption; wealth gap; environmental degradation; natural disasters; mistreatment of minorities (i.e. Uighur Muslims);

increasing government surveillance; increasing religious repression; aggressive online censorship.”

PULL FACTORS: “Freedom of religion; large Chinese diaspora in Canada; financial and social betterment in Canada; lack of extradition treaty with China; freedom of speech and expression.”

X-FACTOR: “Despite protests of the imposed national security law (NSL) in Hong Kong, an exodus of Chinese nationals to Canada in the short term is likely to be manageable, particularly since a number of Hong Kong nationals already possessing Canadian citizenship will make up a majority of the displacement outside of mainland China. However, it is more likely that claims for Hong Kong nationals will gradually increase over the short to medium term due to visa-free travel. Mass arrests of moderate pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong signals an escalation in the application of China's NSL policy, which is likely to push other pro-democracy figures and perhaps more moderate citizens out of mainland China.”

NIGERIA

PUSH FACTORS: “Political uncertainty; corruption; internal displacement; civil conflict; religious tensions; discrimination against LGBTQ+ individuals; ban on homosexuality; poor socio-economic conditions; violent extremism; recession; income inequality; separatist aspirations; imposition of Sharia law in some northern states; female genital mutilation (FGM); use of children by DaeshWest Africa.

PULL FACTORS: “Favorable socio-economic opportunities; development and acquisition of highlevel skills; little criminal violence, and no paramilitary and political violence; freedom for

LGBTQ+ individuals.”

X-FACTOR: “Nigeria faces a variety of internal challenges such as those relating to the humanitarian response in Nigeria's northeast region where the government's armed conflict with the Islamist extremist armed group Boko Haram, now in its 11th year, has left over 7.5 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. While the global pandemic has amplified several factors influencing outward irregular migration, persecution due to sexual orientation and family and gender-based violence remains to the top driving factor as cited in push factors for Nigerian applicants. … In addition, several northern Nigerian states have adopted Islamic Sharia laws, criminalizing sexual activities between persons of the same sex and punishable by death.”

TURKEY

PUSH FACTORS: “Persecution against persons with actual and perceived membership to Hizmet; persecution against Kurdish minority; harsh stance against political opposition; stalled economy; discrimination against LGBTQ+ individuals; ongoing government purges of the military, judiciary, police and in the fields of academics and medicine; indicators of the country becoming more of a dictatorship than a democracy.

PULL FACTORS: “No extradition agreement with Turkey; favourable socio-economic and scholastic opportunities (accredited Hizmet schools); growing Turkish diaspora; Canada's cultural diversity; freedom for LGBTQ+ individuals; little criminal violence, and no paramilitary and political violence.”

X-FACTOR: “Turkish citizens face a variety of domestic threats mostly from militant jihadists of the Islamic State and Kurdish separatist fighters. Threats of attacks by these groups persist which is leading to some movement out of the country. Turkey is experiencing high levels of religious restrictions which have caused much of the movement seen both out of Turkey and the wider Middle East North Africa (MENA) region. In Turkey, religious persecution is a tactic that is used to discriminate against and restrict the rights of others which is driving migration along these lines. With immigration pathways likely reduced globally, either as a result of restrictive socio-economic conditions or harsh immigration policies, desperation will likely see more migrants increasingly use the services of smuggling networks and more dangerous pathways, which is likely to increase migrant vulnerability and exploitation by traffickers or other criminal groups.”

SRI LANKA

PUSH FACTORS: “Discrimination against Tamil and Muslim populations; persecution of religious minorities; ethnic inequalities; human rights violations; discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity; and economic instability.

PULL FACTORS: “Large Tamil diaspora in Canada; favourable socio-economic conditions; religious freedoms, freedom for LGBTQ+ individuals.”

X-FACTOR: “The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant impacts on Sri Lanka. There have been calls to boycott Muslim businesses along with false allegations of Muslims spreading COVID-19 deliberately. Furthermore, there has been widespread opposition to mandatory cremation due to a COVID-19 death since cremation is in contravention of Islamic tradition. This policy is in response to claims that burying those with COVID-19 could lead to contamination of groundwater, which has since been refuted by the medical community. …This has left many frustrated about conflicting or inaccurate health advice and a lack of consultation with doctors and nurses regarding the need for quarantining and disease prevention which could contribute to a greater spread of COVID-19. If tensions continue to rise, push factors will continue to be exacerbated likely resulting in an increase in irregular migration from Sri Lanka.”