The searing heat waves that are scorching large parts of Southeast Asia sparking fires and widespread health issues are largely driven by human-induced climate change, according to a team of scientists.

Temperatures that soared beyond 40C (104F) from India and Bangladesh to Thailand and Laos were at least 2C hotter than they would have been without climate change, according to the researchers associated with the World Weather Attribution initiative.

Extreme events like that seen in Asia will become more frequent and severe until overall greenhouse gas emissions are halted, they said.

“Marginalized people are the worst affected,” said Emmanuel Raju, director of Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research at the University of Copenhagen. “Many of them are still recovering from the pandemic, and from past heat waves and cyclones, which leaves them trapped in a vicious cycle.”

The planet has been scorched by eight of the warmest years on record, and the odds are rising for more hot weather and droughts as the global climate shifts toward an El Nino event. High temperatures in Asia last month sparked fires, led to school closures and widespread hospitalizations, the report said.

The analysis looked at the average maximum temperature and heat index for four consecutive days in April and used climate models and observations to estimate the impact of human activity. The heat index is a measure that combines temperature and humidity and reflects more accurately the impacts of heat waves on the human body, according to the researchers.

The estimated heat index values exceeded the threshold considered as dangerous — 41C — over large parts of the regions studied, the report said. In a few areas, it neared the range of “extremely dangerous” — above 54C — under which the body temperature is difficult to be maintained.

Several cities across Southeast Asia are continuing to experience unusually high temperatures, between - 45 degrees C and 50 degrees C - with some areas recording all-time highs as heat waves hit the region as fears of a major drought loom over the region.

High temperatures are also associated with a number of factors which include worsening air pollution resulting in thick smog that blankets the region.

The combination of poor air quality, and extreme heat due to trapped greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, has increased the risk for heat strokes and respiratory, cardiovascular, and kidney diseases.

In Thailand alone, around 2.4 million people have already sought treatment for pollution-related ailments, data from the kingdom’s Public Health Department revealed. While Malaysia’s Health Ministry recently reported 14 heatstroke cases.

These numbers are expected to rise in the following weeks given the consistently high temperatures in the region.

Dr. Pedro Walpole SJ, the Chair of the Environmental Science for Social Change, a Philippines-based Non-Government Organization, said that at present, “an El Niño phenomenon is developing after about three years of La Niña.”

“Though El Niño is a natural phenomenon, under climate change it is becoming more extreme as the 3 and 4 ‘boxes’ in the Pacific are heating up and these areas indicate a growing warm zone that is spreading across the Pacific,” he said.

“The Pacific is where the climate of Southeast Asia comes from, forming part of our biome, and so, it looks as if we are probably in for a major drought possibly worse than 1997,” Dr. Walpole added.

The 1997 drought has affected several countries in the region, especially Indonesia, which has seen large-scale environmental degradation and food insecurity due to the El Niño-related drought.

The main summer months — April, May and June — are always hot in most parts of India before monsoon rains bring cooler temperatures. But temperatures have become more intense in the past decade. During heat waves, the country usually also suffers severe water shortages, with tens of millions of its 1.4 billion people lacking running water.

A study by World Weather Attribution, an academic group that examines the source of extreme heat, found that a searing heat wave in April that struck parts of South Asia was made at least 30 times more likely by climate change.

Scientists say temperatures are at least 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) hotter in South Asia than in pre-industrial times because of climate change. Currently, the world is averaging about 1.1 to 1.2 C (2 to 2.2 F) warmer.

“Access to healthcare and to cooling solutions like fans and air conditioners is missing for a lot of the population in this region,” said Emmanuel Raju, director of the Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research at the University of Copenhagen.

South Asia is considered among the most vulnerable to climate change in the world, according to various global climate studies. But India, the largest country in the region and the most populous in the world is also currently the third highest emitter of planet-warming gases.

Scientists say drastic measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions are the only solution.

“Heat waves will become more common, temperatures will rise even more, and the number of hot days will increase and become more frequent” if we continue pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, said Chaya Vaddhanaphuti, a professor at Chiang Mai University in Thailand. - Agencies

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