By Mata Press Service

Two new Angus Reid Institute surveys suggest Canadians are rallying behind a tougher national posture abroad even as they remain divided over how power is being consolidated at home.

Taken together, the late-February and mid-March polls suggest Prime Minister Mark Carney is gaining politically from a tense and deteriorating Canada-U.S. relationship, while also facing a growing legitimacy debate over whether a governing majority built through MPs changing parties would reflect the will of voters.

The combined picture is one of a country increasingly uneasy with the United States under President Donald Trump, more supportive of a hard-line Canadian response in trade and diplomacy, and at the same time wary of parliamentary manoeuvring that could hand the Liberals a stronger grip on power without another election.

The first Angus Reid poll, released February 24, found the Liberals had opened a 13-point lead in federal vote intention, with 45 per cent support compared with 32 per cent for the Conservatives. The same survey found 63 per cent of Canadians approve of Carney’s overall performance as prime minister, while 64 per cent say he has done a good or great job handling Canada-U.S. relations.

That rise appears closely tied to public sentiment toward the United States.

According to the poll, only 21 per cent of Canadians now hold a favourable view of the U.S. under Trump. Just 22 per cent say Canada should treat the U.S. as a friend or ally, while 69 per cent say Ottawa should approach its southern neighbour either with caution or as a potential threat to Canada’s interests. Another 67 per cent say they want the federal government to take a hard line in trade negotiations rather than a softer approach aimed at preserving goodwill.

The numbers point to a striking change in public mood. As recently as 2023, three-quarters of Canadians viewed the United States as a friend or valued ally. That view has since collapsed, according to the survey, amid tariff threats, annexation rhetoric and ongoing political attacks from Washington. Angus Reid’s polling suggests that Carney’s political standing is now tied closely to how Canadians think he is handling that pressure.

The survey also suggests the U.S. file has become central to how Canadians judge the prime minister more broadly. Carney’s approval on Canada-U.S. relations, at 64 per cent, is almost identical to his overall job approval of 63 per cent, underscoring how heavily his political fortunes are riding on that relationship.

For Carney, that has translated into more than just personal approval. It has also widened the electoral gap with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre at a time when Poilievre’s own public standing appears to be weakening. The Angus Reid data found that only 33 per cent of Canadians hold a favourable view of Poilievre, while 60 per cent view him unfavourably. The poll described that as tying both a low point for his favourability and a high point for his negative ratings since he became Conservative leader.

But even as Carney and the Liberals benefit from a public mood shaped by foreign pressure, a second Angus Reid survey released March 11 shows that many Canadians are uncomfortable with what is happening inside Parliament.

That poll came after NDP MP Lori Idlout became the fourth MP during the 45th Parliament to cross the floor to the governing Liberals. Her move added new fuel to an already heated national debate over floor crossing and whether MPs who switch parties mid-term should be allowed to continue sitting under new political colours without first returning to voters.

The findings were stark. Only 26 per cent of Canadians say an MP who crosses the floor should be allowed to finish their term under a new party banner. Far more, 41 per cent, say such an MP should have to resign and re-contest the seat in a byelection. Another 22 per cent say the MP should have to sit as an independent until the next election, while 11 per cent say they should vacate the seat altogether until voters choose a replacement.

In other words, only about one in four Canadians support the current system as it stands.

The survey also found the country evenly split on the broader principle of floor crossing itself. Forty-three per cent say the practice should be allowed, and 43 per cent say it should be banned. That headline number is unchanged from when Angus Reid asked the question in 2018. What has changed dramatically is who now holds those views.

In 2018, a majority of Conservative voters, 57 per cent, supported allowing floor crossing. Now, in a Parliament where several MPs have left the Conservatives for the Liberals, that support has collapsed. According to the new poll, just 14 per cent of recent Conservative voters say floor crossing should be permitted, while 78 per cent say it should be banned. By contrast, support is much stronger among Liberal and NDP voters, with 69 per cent in each camp saying the practice should be allowed.

That reversal suggests the issue is being shaped as much by political self-interest as by constitutional principle. When defections benefited Conservatives, Conservative voters were more comfortable with the practice. Now that the Liberals are the main beneficiaries, many have turned sharply against it.

The poll also points to a deeper concern about democratic legitimacy.

Carney is now viewed as being on the cusp of majority territory, depending on the outcome of upcoming byelections and the possibility of additional floor crossings. Canadians are divided on whether that would be a positive outcome. Forty-three per cent say a Carney majority built in part through floor crossing would be good for government stability, while 39 per cent say it would be bad because it would not reflect the will of the people expressed in the last election. Among recent Conservative voters, opposition to such a scenario rises to 80 per cent.

That leaves Carney in a politically strong but potentially delicate position.

On one hand, he appears to be benefiting from a broad national instinct to close ranks in the face of a more hostile United States. Canadians seem willing, at least for now, to reward a leader who projects steadiness and firmness in dealing with Trump. On the other hand, the closer the Liberals move toward majority power through defections and parliamentary arithmetic rather than a general election, the more they risk provoking public concern that democratic consent is being stretched too far.

That tension matters for a broad swath of Canadians, including immigrant and ethnic communities that closely follow both foreign policy and domestic stability. A worsening Canada-U.S. relationship has direct implications for trade, jobs, education, border travel and family connections across North America. At the same time, questions over floor crossing and parliamentary legitimacy go to the heart of whether voters believe the system is still honouring the choices they made at the ballot box.

The Angus Reid findings suggest Canadians are drawing a distinction between leadership and mandate. Many appear satisfied with Carney’s handling of an increasingly fraught relationship with Washington. Far fewer are ready to give political actors a free pass when it comes to shifting party allegiances inside the House of Commons.