By Parveen Chopra

India’s population is projected to cross 2 billion by 2101, making it the only country to reach that mark, unless fertility rates in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the country’s two largest and poorest states, decline drastically, according to a leading population expert.

Carl Haub, senior demographer of the reputed Washington-based Population Reference Bureau (PRB), talked about the implications of India’s population growth and suggested measures to check it during an online discussion on the subject PRB set up Wednesday.

Haub has recently produced a report titled “The Future Population of India: A Long-range View” along with PRB’s India consultant, O.P. Sharma, in collaboration with the Population Foundation of India, New Delhi. The report projects population, fertility rates, life expectancies, and broad age groups for India and each of its 35 states and union territories between 2001 and 2101.

According to the study, India’s population, which stands at over 1.1 billion today, would reach 1.8 billion by mid-century and may even exceed 2 billion by 2101 unless steps are taken to control the growth rates in what is called the Hindi-speaking heartland.

Even though the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined from about six children per woman in 1952 to about three currently, the decline has been much greater in the southern states, which have long had high rates of literacy and education.

But Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with about 188 million and 93 million people respectively, still have a TFR of about 4.3 children per woman.

During the lively online discussion, Haub said their projections assume that a smooth decline in fertility rates will, in fact, take place, reaching the two child family. “But if that does not happen, or if it takes much longer than we assumed, the resulting population would be even larger by 2101.”