By Hermie Atienza
Special to The Filipino Post

Manny Pacquiao’s fight on July 20th against WBA super champ Keith Thurman is the biggest challenge of his career yet.
We’ve never seen the PacMan face such a dangerous opponent, a true knockout artist with real boxing skills, especially at this late stage of his career.

Of course, Mayweather is still the one Manny wants the most since it will earn him the most money and give him a chance to avenge his loss in their superfight. But since Pacquiao cannot keep waiting for Floyd, Thurman (29-0, 22 KO) is the next best option.

But why choose a young, undefeated champ like Thurman?
For sure, there’s no reason a legend like Pacquiao should voluntarily choose to face a hungry lion like Thurman just for a payday. But Manny is not like Floyd. He wants to fight the best and welcomes a challenge, even at great risk.
And that’s why the boxing world continues to adore Manny Pacquiao.

Welterweight is currently boxing’s elite division, with 4 topnotch titleholders, 3 of them undefeated. In my opinion, 3 of these champs are just not good matchups for Pacquiao.

Errol Spence (IBF, 25-0, 21 KO) and Terence Crawford (WBO, 35-0, 26 KO) are just too big, fast, slick, and strong for a 40-year-old PacMan. One of them will surely be the undisputed welterweight kingpin at some point, hopefully after fighting each other.

Shawn Porter (30-2-1, 17 KO), Pacquiao’s sparring partner a decade ago, is now a legitimate champ and his ultra-aggressive, bull-rushing style is going to be a big problem for PacMan. Seeing how Manny struggled against rough manhandling from a fringe fighter like Jeff Horn, it’s simply too troublesome for him to take on Porter, who’s stronger and more skilled than Horn.

Which leaves WBA super champion Keith Thurman.
When Thurman got sidelined by surgery, Pacquiao and Lucas Matthysse fought for a “regular” WBA belt, while Thurman retained his “super” belt.
Of course, we remember PacMan knocking out Matthysse and sending him into retirement. When Thurman finally came back this January, just a week after Pacquiao successfully defended his regular belt against Adrien Broner, the obvious matchup was made for the super and regular champs to unify the WBA belt once again.

And this matchup is quite intriguing. A popular legend challenging a young, returning champ for one piece of the welterweight throne. It’s a chance for Pacquiao to hold a legitimate world title again. It has all the makings of a dynamic blockbuster, which means more money for both of them.
Definitely Thurman’s biggest career purse so far, but Manny will also earn more than facing any other fighter except Mayweather (or Conor MacGregor, should he decide to get another boxing beating).
So the world title and the money are the top reasons for selecting Thurman.

Secondly, though Thurman is 10 years younger than Pacquiao, physically, he’s not that much bigger and taller. He’s a bit taller than Matthysse but has the same reach. Thurman will probably outweigh Manny by at least 10 to 15 lbs come fight night, but we know PacMan’s punches can reach Thurman and he won’t have to struggle against a much taller and much longer opponent.

But perhaps the most significant factor is Thurman’s fighting style. We know Pacquiao doesn’t like fighting slick counterpunchers, and Thurman is a come-forward fighter, with an in-and-out attacking style.
Manny will not need to seek him, as Thurman will be right in from of him, just the way he likes it. A toe-to-toe battle will be inevitable, and that’s why this is destined to be an exciting fight. Even if it devolves into a chess match, you won’t see much running, a-la Mayweather or Broner.

And lastly, due to the 22-month layoff, Thurman did not look too good in his comeback fight against Josesito Lopez. Thurman showed his retained punching power by knocking down Lopez in the 2nd round but could not finish him off.

Team Pacquiao may be banking on Thurman still not being in peak form, which Manny can exploit. Although Pacquiao has definitely lost a step, he’s still faster than most welterweights, and may still be faster than Thurman. But it will be foolish to underestimate Thurman based on his comeback fight, so Pacquiao should prepare to face the best version of Thurman possible.

In terms of strength, Thurman is nicknamed “One Time” for his vaunted one-punch knockout power.
In contrast, Manny seems to have lost some sting in his punches these past years. That’s why this fight is very risky for Pacquiao, with a real threat of ending badly.
So a word of warning to Filipino fans, and Manny Pacquiao fans in general. This is the first time PacMan will be a true underdog in a fight. Though he was a betting underdog against Mayweather, and more people picked Floyd to win, no one feared for Pacquiao’s safety or really believed Mayweather would knock him out. Mayweather simply did not have the punching power to do that.

Thurman is different. This is PacMan’s most dangerous fight yet, and there’s real risk he might get knocked out again and be abruptly sent into retirement.
So we have to be prepared for that outcome, should it happen.
Even if Manny loses or gets knocked out, it will not be a dark blemish on his record, nor will it diminish his legacy in any way. Pacquiao is a once-in-a-lifetime, all-time-great fighter. His world titles in 8 weight divisions is a record that may never be equaled, much less broken.

But we’re not counting out Manny Pacquiao just yet. I believe his overall skills, ring IQ and big-fight experience would enable him to figure out Thurman, avoid his power punch, and outland him enough to win close rounds. If Manny manages to catch Thurman like Lopez did, he can probably finish him off. Though I think it’s more likely that they’ll battle through a very tough 12 rounds, and PacMan will score enough points to win a very close decision.

Come July 20th, let’s all hope for the best but we should be prepared to witness the end of Manny Pacquiao’s boxing journey, should fate dictate. But I still think the world’s only fighting senator has enough left in the tank to will himself to victory and add a final world title to his glorious career. 

Go PacMan!